We’ve got some very mathematically unsound odds in the death pool as we speculate who is going to make it out alive this season, and who is going to meet the reaper (er walker).
The show has never been shy about killing off major characters, and with the arrival of Negan and the Saviors some of our favorite characters are very likely going to meet the reaper. Executive producer Greg Nicotero has already promised a major death, but if the comics are anything to go by, the audience is going to be yelling, “You in danger, girl!” to half the cast.
Odds of Survival: 99.9%
We’re not worried about Rick. He’s still alive in the comics, and even though the cast is almost as big as that pit o’ walkers, Rick Grimes is still the lead character of the show. Rick is also the show’s biggest loose cannon (and character most in need of a meditation retreat) and he has a big showdown coming not only with Negan, but if and when the show gets to Alpha (who may be even scarier than Negan) things are going to get BLOODY. Plus, nobody does crazy better than the Rickster.
Odds of Survival: 90%
As one of the characters most changed from her comic book iteration, Carol is pretty safe. The Carol of the comics is long-dead but we can all agree she was very early season Carol with a dash of telenovela thrown in there, not our bada** assassin, enemy of the sniffles and frightener of children that we know and love. We think it’s unlikely that Carol is going to be killed off; Rick needs someone more ruthless than he, she’s a fan favorite, and since she is no longer tied to the comics the possibilities are endless for Carol.
Odds of Survival: 25%
We’re tired of discussing what a mess Glenn’s storyline was last season, and we certainly weren’t alone in calling foul. We think the show is ready to give Glenn the heroic (and gruesome) fate that he suffers at the hands of Negan. It would definitely be a memorable way to go out, but is this character permanently stained by Dumpster-Death-Gate? We’ll have to wait and see, but we think it’s highly likely that Glenn is going to get a face full of Lucille in the near future. We’d be a lot sadder if we didn’t already attend his funeral.
Odds of Survival: 70%
We’d like to think Maggie (and her baby) will live to survive another day. We discussed last week what Maggie’s arc in the comic is, and how great it would be in the show. That said, there have been rumors that she might be killed off in place of Glenn, and it’s not the first time the show has pulled a character switcheroo and swapped character deaths. IF Maggie gets the short end of the Savior stick, we think it’ll be because they are going to give her comic story arc to Michonne.
Odds of Survival: 48%
We love Michael Cudlitz, but the show hasn’t always utilized his acting skills on the show. Abraham’s storyline with Sasha has been unexpected and has a lot of potential. However, there are those pesky Saviors to deal with. Abraham, Sasha and Daryl are the first of the shows main characters to meet our new villains, and we can’t imagine that all three are going to survive the encounter. In the comics, Abraham dies at the hands of one of the Saviors, Dwight. We think that Abraham still has some story left in him, but his days flirting with Sasha and playing Russian roulette with walkers are numbered.
Odds of Survival: 95%
It’s never a good idea to kill off the one character that can slice you up with a katana. Michonne is not only an important character in the show and the comics, but she’s Rick’s rock. She’s the friend that is there when you need to have a good heart-to-heart, and will pistol whip you when you start acting crazy. Michonne isn’t just a fan favorite; she’s a necessary grounding force for the show. We don’t see her going anywhere, not when she’s been tasked with carrying on Deanna’s legacy for a new Safe-Zone, and maybe, also the opportunity for Michonne to carve her own future independent of the Grimes gang.
Odds of Survival: 110%
No way. No how. Killing off Daryl would create a fan apocalypse. There’s pretty much no way that Norman Reedus is going anywhere until possibly the final season of the series.
Odds of Survival: 33%
Look, we like Sasha, especially now that she’s outgrown her angsty “I hang out with the corpses of dead walkers because I’m dark like that” phase. However, since Sasha is an original character created for the show, if anyone isn’t going to make it out of this encounter with the Saviors, it will probably be her. Since there is the potential for romance with Abraham, Sasha may be kept around, and if she is taken hostage, it would give Abraham (and the rest of the gang) a compelling reason to go after her, but whatever her future, it’s precarious at best.
Odds of Survival: 100%
First off, Carl has a HUGE story arc in the comics not just with the Saviors, but later with the Whisperers, so this fan of large chapeaus is probably going to see his late teen years. As for baby Judith AKA Lil A**kicker, well, considering she’s pretty well-behaved and can’t talk (therefore cannot annoy us) we think she’s going to survive a bit longer.
Jessie, Sam and Ron
Odds of Survival: 6%
Bland Jessie and her irritating spawn can die any time. In the comics, Jessie ends up dead, and we’re big proponents of getting rid of irritating child actors on shows. It’s about time for the show to start cleaning up some character house with this trio, don’t you think?
Odds of Survival: 57%
With the brewing war that is about to erupt with the Saviors, Denise’s role as basically a battlefield surgeon makes her a vital character for at least this half of the season, and probably into season seven. Denise eventually dies in the comics, and we don’t see Merritt Wever signing onto the show indefinitely, but right now she’s got some meaty material upcoming so we expect to see her stick around through 2016.
Odds of Survival: 76%
Aaron has been a great addition to the cast (when he is actually in an episode). He’s tough, and a good friend to Daryl and Maggie. He’s still alive and kicking in the comics, and we’re pretty sure that Aaron is going to be serving up spaghetti dinners and saving friends from water-logged walkers in the foreseeable future.
Odds of Survival: 89%
Let’s be real here: there is NO way that Morgan and Rick went through everything they did to reunite like star-crossed lovers in a teen movie to have the writers of the show kill off Morgan. At least not yet. We’d bet Morgan’s entire supply of peanut butter protein bars that he’s going to stick around. Sure in the comics, Morgan dies, but we need to see him wise-up and realize how dumb his Wolf rehabilitation program is, have some quality bro-time with Rick, and most importantly, have a real throw down with Carol. Sorry Lennie James, we’re not ready to see you start taking auditions just yet.
Odds of Survival: 12%
Considering the show barely remembers that she exists, Rosita is pretty expendable. We’d say her chances for survival are about as likely as Ron’s chances of killing Rick, but then again, she may just survive because she’s so forgettable.
Odds of Survival: 82%
Eugene plays in important role in the comics, not just as a Mullet ambassador, but as someone that is able to craft weapons. Being handy in the apocalypse is no joke, especially when you’re at war with the Saviors. As long he’s not expected to wield a machete around people wearing open-toed shoes, we think Eugene might just survive this season.
Odds of Survival: 21%
Besides being a snack thief, a mean drunk, and a flirt, Spencer is a total quisling. In the comics he tries to sell out Rick and the gang, and then gets killed by Negan. Too bad, so sad, we say. Spencer might want to make the most of the second half of season six, because we’re pretty sure there won’t be any crackers for him to steal in season seven.
Odds of Survival: 35%
Tara brings a nice light presence to the show, not to mention, she and Denise are very cute together. Other than being one of the few truly optimistic characters on the show, Tara doesn’t add too much overall to the story. Her fate could go either way. Keep sassing Rick, and you can stay Tara.
Odds of Survival: 50%
Sorry, Seth Gilliam but we liked you better on The Wire. Rick isn’t a fan of Father Gabriel, and neither are audiences. Gabriel is crazy, but in an irritating way. We don’t care about his guilt, but we do know that he is trying to make things up to Rick (good luck with that, padre). Father Gabriel lives on in the comics, but he has a 50/50 shot of meeting his maker in the upcoming seasons.
Odds of Survival: 29%
One of the few Alexandrians with half a brain cell, Tobin went from worst boss at a construction site to Rick Grimes cheerleader and fence building buddy. Tobin hasn’t had a ton to do on the show, but he’s been a reliable background character. He dies in the comics, and we think the show will follow suit, but not before beefing up his story arc a bit.
Odds of Survival: 62%
An important part of the crew in the comics, the Heath of the show showed a lot of potential: he was competent, but lacked the experience and ruthlessness of the Grimes gang; he was also willing to challenge Rick, while being open to his ideas. The show needs pragmatic characters, and Heath fits the bill, but he sort of disappeared. Don’t be a stranger Heath, Eugene approves your hair game, and so do we.