Full disclosure: I have watched almost every nominated Oscar film this year. I do this every year going back nearly as far as I can remember. I never quite get them all — some just can’t be found online, in theaters, or on Netflix — or they want to charge me absurd rates to watch them (looking at you, most Live Action Short Films). So I don’t quite get them all, but I see anything anybody cares about.
As a result, I am in a unique position to help you with your Oscar party ballot. But here’s the thing: since I’ve started watching ALL the Oscar movies, my ability to choose what wins has gone down massively. In effect, the more I know about the Oscar films, the less I am able to pick what will win. SO TAKE THAT INTO CONSIDERATION. Basically, my list below is neither the actors/actresses/movies I WANT to win (looking at you, Rosamund Pike), nor the movies that WILL win. Instead, these are the movies I THINK will win. So with that in mind, your best bet is to pick AROUND the movies that I have selected. Instead of Boyhood for Best Picture, go with Birdman. Instead of Michael Keaton for Birdman, go with Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything. Only then will you have a shot at looking like a snooty Oscars expert.
So there you go. While I WISH that Ed Norton and J.K. Simmons would tie (trust me, Simmons gets this one alone! That one I am right on), or that Nightcrawler would win Best Original Screenplay, these are what I THINK will win. Best of luck to all.